ILO Working Paper 140 (2025): Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure
Task-level occupational exposure framework for generative AI, built from expert input and model predictions.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Tiling is skilled precision craft in real buildings. Every floor and wall is different. There is no tiling robot. The skills shortage is severe.
Tilers fix ceramic, porcelain, and natural stone tiles to walls and floors — achieving the precise, flat, level results that define quality bathroom and kitchen installations. This is skilled craft work that requires an eye for line and level, the ability to cut tiles accurately around pipes, sockets, and irregular features, and the patience to achieve the perfect grout lines that distinguish excellent work.
Every tiling job is unique: the wall is never perfectly flat, the floor is never perfectly level, every bathroom has different positions for outlets, waste pipes, and fixtures. Adapting to these specific conditions requires the skilled judgment that no robotic system can provide.
AI design tools can help customers visualise tile patterns and selections. But the physical laying of tiles in a real bathroom or kitchen remains entirely human work.
Bathroom and kitchen renovation, new residential construction, and commercial interiors are all creating strong tiling demand. The tiling skills shortage is significant.
These are the genuine threats to this profession. They are real, but they are not sufficient to overturn the fundamental analysis. Here is why.
Put the case that Wall and Floor Tiler will not survive AI displacement. The system responds with counterarguments from the research base. Strong arguments shift the score — up to a maximum of ±15 points. The system is not an AI. It is a structured argument engine.
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Keep the framework, but add at least one sector-specific source and remove any remaining implied precision.
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This page is grounded in task exposure research and labour-market trend reports, then translated into a reasoned occupation-level argument.
This site now treats exact timelines, total job-loss counts, and regional speed as interpretive estimates unless a cited source states them directly. The argument on this page should be read as a structured forecast, not a guaranteed future.
These impact figures are site estimates for comparison and should not be read as official labour-market counts.
Task-level occupational exposure framework for generative AI, built from expert input and model predictions.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Finds clerical work is the most highly exposed occupational group and that augmentation is often more likely than full occupation automation.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Shows AI exposure is highest in many white-collar cognitive occupations, while manual occupations tend to have lower exposure.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Advanced economies are more exposed to AI because they have more cognitive-intensive jobs; infrastructure and skills limit adoption elsewhere.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Large-employer survey showing clerical roles among the fastest-declining and care, education, software and green-transition jobs among growth areas.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Notes substantial automation risk remains, while observed labour-market effects remain mixed rather than universally destructive.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Argues advanced economies are better positioned to benefit from AI due to infrastructure, skills, and institutions.
OPEN SOURCE ↗