ILO Working Paper 140 (2025): Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure
Task-level occupational exposure framework for generative AI, built from expert input and model predictions.
OPEN SOURCE ↗AI detects cancer better than radiologists for many cancers. Oncologists design complex treatment plans, manage toxicity, and support patients through the most frightening experience of their lives.
Oncologists diagnose and treat cancer — a condition affecting nearly one-third of all people at some point in their lives. AI is transforming cancer detection while leaving the treatment and patient relationship dimensions intact.
AI pathology systems (PathAI, Paige AI, Ibex Medical Analytics) detect cancer in pathology slides with accuracy matching or exceeding specialist pathologists for common cancers. AI mammography screening (Transpara, Screenpoint) detects breast cancer earlier and with fewer false positives than standard screening. These AI tools are being deployed in current deployment and policy evidence screening programmes.
But cancer treatment is far more complex than detection: designing chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and targeted therapy regimens; managing treatment toxicity; participating in multidisciplinary team decisions; conducting clinical procedures (bone marrow biopsy, intrathecal chemotherapy); and supporting a patient through a terrifying and potentially life-threatening illness.
The patient with cancer needs a human oncologist who knows their case, responds to their fears, adjusts their treatment based on their response, and remains accountable for their care. AI is making oncologists better at detection; it cannot replace the oncologist.
These are the genuine threats to this profession. They are real, but they are not sufficient to overturn the fundamental analysis. Here is why.
Put the case that Oncologist will not survive AI displacement. The system responds with counterarguments from the research base. Strong arguments shift the score — up to a maximum of ±15 points. The system is not an AI. It is a structured argument engine.
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This page is grounded in task exposure research and labour-market trend reports, then translated into a reasoned occupation-level argument.
This site now treats exact timelines, total job-loss counts, and regional speed as interpretive estimates unless a cited source states them directly. The argument on this page should be read as a structured forecast, not a guaranteed future.
These impact figures are site estimates for comparison and should not be read as official labour-market counts.
Task-level occupational exposure framework for generative AI, built from expert input and model predictions.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Finds clerical work is the most highly exposed occupational group and that augmentation is often more likely than full occupation automation.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Shows AI exposure is highest in many white-collar cognitive occupations, while manual occupations tend to have lower exposure.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Advanced economies are more exposed to AI because they have more cognitive-intensive jobs; infrastructure and skills limit adoption elsewhere.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Large-employer survey showing clerical roles among the fastest-declining and care, education, software and green-transition jobs among growth areas.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Notes substantial automation risk remains, while observed labour-market effects remain mixed rather than universally destructive.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Argues advanced economies are better positioned to benefit from AI due to infrastructure, skills, and institutions.
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